The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Im trying to get more into betting on the fights. And alot of people talk about being a 3 to 1 or 2 to 1 favorite what does that mean and how important is that in betting?

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Sean O'Malley, TKO, R1
Suga via TKO

Zhang vs. Lemos
Weili Zhang, SUB, R2
Zhang via Sub, feeling a club and sub on this one

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO
Garry via TKO, Magny has good defense at times but Gary seems to be improving more and more each fight.

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Mario Bautista, SUB, R1
Marioooo via Sub. I enjoy watching Mario fight, short turn around for blacksbear (what a boss!)

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO, R1
Rodrigues via TKO, live by the sword, die by the sword

Lee vs. Silva
Natália Silva, DEC
Silva via Dec, Lee will be a good test but Silva has looked great recently!

* Edited at 08.14.2023, 11:09 PM ET *

It describes the ratio of dog odds to favorite odds. a 2 to 1 favorite is expected to cash 2/3 of the time, a 3 to 1 3/4 of the time and so on.

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

* Edited at 08.14.2023, 11:14 PM ET *

Blackshear is a G for taking the Batista fight on a week's notice after fighting on Saturday. 

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Aljamain Sterling, TKO, R3
Nice to be back, and for a good card. I think this card is absolutely one of the best cards of the year to bet parlays on. I already have about 20 parlays locked up and ready to go on this. I feel very confident with my reads on this card. This a good one and a great spot for Aljo. He wrestled Cejudo with ease and I can only guess what he is going to do to O'Malley. Sean will likely be hesitant and will get caught with takedowns in the open and once it hits the ground he is getting controlled. I feel Aljo is going to make a point of this and extend it out till at least the 3rd round when Sean tires and slows and then he will likely pound him out. TKO rather than submission is my guess.

Zhang vs. Lemos
Weili Zhang, TKO, R4
Again I think WeiLi is going to make a statement here. She will likely out wrestle and out strike Lemos who was finding it hard to separate herself in the striking from Hill. I expect domination here with a late TKO as Lemos gets tired.

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, DEC
Garry should be sharper, faster and more skilled. My one concern is if Magny can wet blanket him and grind him out against the cage. But I think Garry takes it and it goes over 1.5 rounds if not to decision. I am hesitant to put Garry in too many parlays though because I could see the cage grind happening. But the judges should score damage if they actually do their jobs for once. Pick is Garry by decision.

Vera vs. Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz, DEC
Never been completely sold on Vera and I think this is a horrible match up for him. Munhoz is better everywhere and has never been knocked out. Also Vera will give up round 1 and stay on his back if taken down. Best underdog bet of the card for me.

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Gregory Rodrigues, SUB, R2
Rodrigues wins this however he wants in my view, he is better everywhere and I don't think Denis has the one punch KO power you need to end Robocops night. If it hits the ground like it should then it will be curtains for Denis.

Meerschaert vs. Petroski
Andre Petroski, SUB, R1
Again Petroski is better everywhere, including as a grappler and a much better wrestler. This should end early and not make it to the famed round 3

Lee vs. Silva
Natália Silva, DEC
Destruction.

Moroz vs. Silva
Karine Silva, SUB, R2
My one concern is if Moroz can put up a decent takedown defence and Karine gets tired trying to take her down. Moroz has decent boxing but Karine is the much better fighter. It should be a showcase spot for her.

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
Holobaugh is dangerous with his close in fighting and combinations but Hubbard will likely use his wrestling and take a decision.

No way Blackshear hits another twister against Bautista🌪

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Da'Mon Blackshear
Wow great fight, though I have not had a lot of time to research this. Off the top of my head I think Blackshear's wrestling overcomes Mario's ground game. I also do not trust Mario's chin completely. I am taking Blackshear who I have always felt had top 15 potential.

Weidman vs. Tavares
Brad Tavares, DEC
Mmmmm, this is a tough one. What will Weidman look like coming back from that injury after such a long lay off at that age? That said they have given him one matchup he could win. Tavares has some of the best takedown defence however, and if Chris can't get it down it could be trouble. Coinflip in my opinion but I am going to say the lay off and injury is too much to just recover from in his comeback fight. Tavares by decision though I am not confident.

does anyone know how big blackshear is i wanna know how bad the double weightcut will be

He’s 5 foot 10 and I’m guessing like most batamweight, he be about 150lb to 155lb walk around weight 

Stand Up Phase:  ·       This fight is interesting because in some ways they’re both kind of mirrors of one another. Vera is labelled a switch fighter, but most of his power shots come from SP. Munhoz has a more of an OX boxer style. Also, the ways in which they progress through the fight. Vera is typically known as a slow starter that becomes better in later rounds and you generally see Munhoz have a strong first round but becomes repetitive and ineffective. My expectation for this fight would probably be Vera using his reach advantage and teeps to keep distance to land his kicks and left hook from SP. Unless Munhoz has decent success with his jab, I expect a lot of head hunting with hooks and the occasional high kick from out of range.   Clinch Phase: ·       Munhoz isn’t a strong takedown threat from what’s been shown but he could sneak towards the back. Vera has decent success defending shots but has issues when someone can turn the corner on a TD. Ground Phase: ·       Munhoz seems to have better control and GnP. This would be bad for Vera since he typically isn’t urgent about returning to the feet and elects to strike from the bottom in his guard.    Prediction: Vera wins by UD ·       This should be a good one in terms of action since both are heavy hitters and neither has been finished or even dropped once in their UFC run. I expect Vera’s constant stance switching and kicks will give Munhoz enough problems, if not seriously hurt him, resulting in Munhoz’s attacks to become predictable. 

The closer we get to the fight the more I start to lean O'Malley. Sterling keeps his hands super low & cuts a **** ton of weight. I can also see him coming in with an injury due to the back to back camps & basically having no choice but to immediately defend his belt against a guy who's had a year off to train against a grappler 

Writing this as to gain some respect for what Gerald Meerschaert has done. Joined the UFC all the way back in 2016 had a good initial run of 4-1(Loss being to a middleweight Thiago Santos) until he got to face some of the division's more established names that were coming up too. Losses to Jack Hermansson, Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders before Ian Heinisch stopped him and if that was not bad enough 2020 he got sacrificed to Khamzat Chimaev and got KO faster than his previous stoppage. 17 seconds first round, first punch and fastest loss he has received. 

The Khamzat Chimaev loss was especially bad as not only was he now 6-6 in the UFC but that stoppage was one of Khamzat Chimaev most replayed wins from his initial introduction to the UFC. The amount of time the one-punch stoppage has been played by the UFC for promo is insane and being a fighter stopped twice in a row and one is against one of the biggest rising stars in the promotion must have played on Gerald's mind constantly. 

Most including myself saw Gerald as just another name in the UFC for rising prospects to test themselves while climbing the UFC ladder also being 2-5 in his last seven was not good information to go on if we looking to predict the future of Gerald Meerschaert. Surprisingly Gerald came back better than he was before once again going 4-1. Winning three in a row while subbing all 3 of his opponents the Makhmud Muradov win was very impressive as Muradov was on a 14-fight win streak. He would lose to Krzysztof Jotko via decision but many felt as though Meerschaert could have gotten the nod for the win. He would bounce back with a big stoppage over a very good striker in Bruno Silva going 4-1 before getting stopped by Joe Pyfer in the first. 

At 35 now he once again finds himself fighting a fierce up-and-comer in Andre Petroski. Even though I think Petroski has enough to get the job done Meerschaert has shown many times that he is capable of surprising everyone and this weekend don't be surprised if he does he was able to put that 17 seconds highlight away in the past and move forward which in my books deserves some recognition. 

* Edited at 08.15.2023, 8:58 AM ET *

@Ufcbet 

facts bro , I like chito Vera to I think he gets the dec win 

@Kniferusty 

yeah smart bro that sounds the go , I like Suga/aljo to go over 2.5 aswell , don’t think aljo subs him in the first 

This is Blackshears 5th UFC fight in just barely over a calendar year. What an absolute beast. 

Garbrandt really cannot catch a break.  What happened this time?